Trudeau’s Election Gamble Returns Liberal Minority As O’Toole’s Attempted Conservative Rebrand Fails To Shift The Needle

Good morning. Justin Trudeau’s $610 million early election call has left Canada's federal political landscape in much the same shape as it was when the writs dropped on August 15. While some ridings are yet to be declared and mail-in ballots are still to be counted, the Liberals are projected to return to power with another minority government.

As of 3:30 a.m. EST, the Liberals are confirmed or leading in 158 seats, up one from the 2019 vote. The Conservatives are confirmed or leading in 119 seats, down two from 2019. The NDP are confirmed or ahead in 25 seats, up one from 2019, while Bloc Québécois are projected to increase their seat count from 32 to 34.

Despite leading the projected seat count, however, the Liberals saw their overall vote share fall slightly to approximately 32 per cent as of 3:30 a.m. EST, while the Conservatives are at around 34 per cent. The NDP’s vote share also barely budged, up to 17.7 per cent compared to the 16 per cent it secured in 2019.

Before polls closed Monday, The Toronto Star reported that members of Erin O’Toole’s Conservative campaign team claimed that holding Trudeau to a minority government would amount to a victory, in a move widely seen as attempting to preemptively stave off potential challenges to O’Toole’s leadership.

Conservatives Fail To Break Ground In Toronto As MPs Fall in Alberta

Despite a campaign of attempting to rebrand the Conservatives — which failed to convince experts and critics — as a moderate party, O’Toole failed to break ground in the seat-rich Toronto area and is on course to lose MPs in Alberta to the NDP and Liberals.

Amid Alberta’s COVID-19 crisis which many regard as being worsened by Conservative Premier Jason Kenney’s poor handling of the fourth wave, Tory incumbent Jag Sahota lost to the Liberals’ George Chahal in Calgary Skyview.

In Edmonton Griesbach, Conservative MP Kerry Diotte was trailing behind the NDP’s Blake Desjarlais at 3:30 a.m. EST. In Edmonton Centre, the Liberals were narrowly ahead of Tory incumbent James Cumming.